A new poll in the state that kicks off the presidential primary and caucus calendar in just three months shows an airtight race among the top four contenders for the Democratic nomination.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts stands at 22 percent among likely Democratic caucus voters in Iowa, according to a New York Times/Siena College survey released on Friday. Fellow progressive lawmaker and populist champion Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is at 19 percent in the poll, with South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 18 percent and former Vice President Joe Biden at 17 percent.
Warren’s 3 percentage point edge over Sanders is within the poll’s margin of error, as is Buttigieg’s edge over Biden. But the standing of the South Bend mayor reflects a steady surge in Iowa support in recent weeks, up from single digits as recently as September.
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A USA Today/Suffolk University survey conducted immediately after the Oct. 15 fourth Democratic presidential debate indicated Biden with a slight 1 point edge over Warren, followed by Buttigieg and Sanders.
In the new poll, Sen. Amy Klobuchar of neighboring Minnesota stands at 4 percent support, with Sen. Kamala Harris of California and tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang both at 3 percent.
Harris – who’s seen her standing in the race deteriorate the past three months – has gone all-in on Iowa, spending roughly half of October in the first caucus state. The senator’s campaign announced this week that they’re moving resources from the other early voting states and from their Baltimore, Md., headquarters to Iowa.
Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii and billionaire businessman and environmental and progressive advocate Tom Steyer all stand at 2 percent. Everyone else in the large field of Democratic White House hopefuls registered at 1 percent or less.
When factoring in the second-choice preferences of the voters questioned in the poll, Warren stands at 47 percent. Sanders is the first or second choice of 34 percent of likely caucus-goers, with Buttigieg at 31 percent and Biden at 28 percent.
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The New York Times/Siena College survey was conducted Oct. 25-30, with 439 likely Democratic caucus-goers in the Hawkeye State questioned by live telephone operators. The survey’s sampling error is plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
The poll’s release comes hours before nearly the entire field of Democratic presidential candidates descend on Des Moines to take part in the Iowa Democratic Party’s Liberty and Justice Fundraiser.
